CentralNic Group
Team Internet Plc

Team Internet Plc share price, company news, analysis and interviews

Team Internet plc (LON:TIG) – formerly CentralNic – is a global internet solutions group headquartered in London. Leveraging world-class technologies and industry leading teams, they have been transforming the way organisations, brands, publishers and consumers connect and thrive online.

CentralNic Registry

CentralNic’s registry division is a leading distributor of registries’ domain names, on an exclusive basis, through retailers globally. It is the only distributor with six of the top twenty new TLDs on its platform. The three most important contributing factors behind this achievement are the division’s leading technology platforms, its extensive range of support services and its integrated network of global retailers.

CentralNic Retail

The retail Division markets and sells domain names and associated products directly to the end-user.  The division distributes around 1,200 domain extensions, one of the widest range of domain extensions offered by retailers in the industry. In addition, the Retail Division supplies products associated with domain names such as website hosting and website security certificates.

CentralNic Reseller

Its reseller division manages and markets domain names and associated products through a large network of resellers. The division has approximately 20,000 resellers who sell domain names to end-user customers in over 250 countries globally. The division distributes around 1,200 domain extensions through its reseller network, one of the widest range of domain extensions offered in the industry. In addition, the Reseller division supplies products associated with domain names such as website hosting and website security certificates.

CentralNic Corporate

The corporate market is gaining in importance in the domain name industry, and CentralNic is addressing this market in several ways.

CentralNic Corporate provides products and services to:

  • de-risk the complex task of managing a portfolio of domain names, ensuring websites are always reachable and the brand owner has exactly the right mix of domain names it needs,
  • protect brand owners’ online presence, reputation and revenues from fraudsters, cybersquatters and counterfeiters,
  • help brand owners obtain, manage, protect and develop their internet presence under their own exclusive “DotBrand” TLDs.

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CentralNic Group

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Interviews

CentralNic Group long term high accelerating growth yet still room for significant upside (Analyst VIDEO)

CentralNic Group Plc (LON:CNIC) is the topic of conversation when Bob Liao Director and Research Analyst at Zeus Capital joins DirectorsTalk Interviews.

Bob provides us with an overview of the trading update for Q2 2022, provides some context for the pro forma revenue growth and highlights its key drivers, shares his view on the revised guidance given the current macroeconomic environment and with the company clearly growing rapidly and has the potential to expand margins Bob shares his thoughts on the valuation multiples.

https://vimeo.com/731636820

CentralNic Group (LON: CNIC) is a global internet platform that derives recurring revenue from operating a marketplace model for online presence and online marketing services.

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CentralNic Group strong start with year-on-year organic growth now above 50% (VIDEO)

CentralNic Group plc (LON:CNIC) CEO Ben Crawford joins DirectorsTalk Interviews to discuss unaudited financial results for the three months ended 31st March 2022.

Ben takes us through the financial highlights, explains how with organic revenues at circa 53$ for the trailing twelve months what has driven the growth, reducing net debt and non core expense, operations and corporate activity and what we should expect from the group throughout the remainder of the year.

https://vimeo.com/713152465

CentralNic Group (LON: CNIC) is a global internet platform that derives recurring revenue from operating a marketplace model for online presence and online marketing services.

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CentralNic Group continue to beat expectations (Analyst Interview)

CentralNic Group Plc (LON:CNIC) is the topic of conversation when Bob Liao Director and Research Analyst at Zeus Capital joins DirectorsTalk Interviews.

Bob provides us with an overview of VGL, explains how the acquisition fits in with CentalNic’s business, talks us through the key parameters of the transaction and updates us on the company performance from its latest trading update.

https://vimeo.com/685377073

CentralNic Group is a global internet platform company that derives recurring revenues selling online presence and marketing services.

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CentralNic Group undervalued with multiple catalysts for share price momentum (Analyst Interview)

CentralNic Group (LON:CNIC) is the topic of conversation when Zeus Capital Analyst Bob Liao joins DirectorsTalk Interviews.

Bob explains whats the driving strong trading, gives us some details around the acquisitions, the revisions being made to forecasts off the back of the news and how CentralNic is positioned for investors.

https://vimeo.com/677595517

CentralNic Group is a global internet platform company that derives recurring revenues selling online presence and marketing services.

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Question & Answers

CentralNic Group

CentralNic Group continues to perform extremely strongly, CEO Michael Riedl explains why (LON:CNIC)

CentralNic Group Plc (LON:CNIC), the global internet software company that derives recurring revenue from marketplaces for Online Presence and Online Marketing services, recently announced the appointment of Michael Riedl, as Group CEO. We caught up with Michael to discuss his new role. 

Congratulations on your appointment as CEO of CentralNic. Obviously, you’ve been the CFO of the company for the past four years but could you give us a bit more background on yourself?

Yes, I’ve been with the Group for four years now, but I’ve been involved in the industry since 2007, first as an investor, and since 2011 as an executive. My first appointment was actually for an online marketing business, where I was CEO for four years and which we sold to Team Internet, currently our largest subsidiary in terms of revenue.

So with your background in selling a business to Team Internet was it you that introduced this key acquisition, and therefore the Online Marketing business, to CentralNic, which is now the biggest revenue contributor and growth engine of the company?

Ben and I always worked as a team, passing balls to each other. When the Team Internet business came up for sale, it was of course immensely helpful that I had built a basis of trust with the owners and management. This, together with my prior operational experience in this business, is why I was appointed as Chairman of the Board of Team Internet on acquisition in 2019.

The company continues to perform extremely strongly. The recent Q3 results showed 88% revenue growth and 100% growth in EBITDA and today you’ve stated the performance remains robust. Any more you can say on what is driving this and the outlook for the business?

One can see from our segmental reporting that our success is largely driven by the Online Marketing business. The growth is the result both of more consumers engaging with our websites, which increased from 1.8bn in the first 9 months of 2021 to 3.3bn in the first 9 months of this year, and us increasing the value per consumer engagement, from an average of USD 64.9 per thousand in the first 9 months 2021 to USD 104.1 per thousand engagements in the first 9 months this year. This is what actually drives the business.

Given your strong cash position and improved balance sheet you’ve announced you are launching a share buy-back programme, can you provide more detail on the rationale behind this?

The acquisitions we made in 2022 brought us a series of capabilities that are important to our strategic plan. While we still seek more opportunities, our success in the year just ended has taken away a bit of the urgency on acquisitions. This, combined with record free cashflow, allows us to proceed in earnest to return money to the shareholders that have always supported us when we needed it. It is not an abrupt pivot of our strategy, more a matter of rebalancing. You’ll see that we made a further small acquisition today for a total consideration of USD 5.2m which will bring us an additional $1.4m in EBITDA each year. This is in line with our vertical integration strategy, providing the Group’s Online Marketing segment with proprietary, exclusive special interest traffic to monetise.

And your successor in the role of CFO, Billy Green, what can you tell us about him?

I personally recruited Billy and we have worked closely for three years now. He has been instrumental in the acceleration of our reporting as well as our recent refinancing. He is very capable and well prepared for the role and I am still on hand to provide any support if requested.

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CentralNic Group 2022 revenue and EBITDA forecasts upgraded by Zeus Capital (LON:CNIC)

CentralNic Group plc (LON:CNIC) is the topic of conversation when Zeus Capital’s Technology Analyst Bob Liao caught up with DirectorsTalk for an exclusive interview.

Q1: CentralNic Group announced a strong trading update and two small but accretive acquisitions. Can you first off just tell us what’s driving that strong trading and perhaps give us some details around the acquisitions?

A1: The company announced that its strong growth in 2021 has continued into 2022 with revenue growth year to date, materially ahead of consensus expectations for the full year. They believe now that full year growth will be at least 14%, which is at the top end of consensus expectations so we should see numbers moving up on the back of their commentary.

The strong growth been largely driven by its online marketing division, the division has a really unique product that’s benefiting from Apple’s removal of support for third party cookies and their browsers. This is the issue that Facebook has been having but it’s been actually beneficial to CNIC so the online marketing division has got a product that can source good traffic for advertisers without the use of these third party cookies.

So, as a result, a lot of companies are moving away from advertising that depends on third party cookies and towards really privacy-focused product so that’s why it’s doing really, really well and continues to obviously in 2022.

The company made a couple of small acquisitions, not a large transaction, it’s only about €600,000 but again, it demonstrates one of the drivers’ of the company, which is that they continue to find attractive, highly accretive acquisitions that are able to provide a lot of synergies with the rest of their group.

So, both positive bits of news this morning.

Q2: So, on the back of that news, what revisions are you making to your forecasts?


A2
: It’s another positive surprise and this continues a trend that we’ve been seeing over the last several quarters of consistent upgrades. We saw in the first half of last year, good upgrades to revenues and then in the second half of last year, upgrades to both revenues and to profits.

Now, going into 2022, we’re continuing that trend so we’re upgrading our 2022 revenue by 14% and our EBITDA forecast by 4%. So, this is a stock that clearly has some strong earnings momentum and we’re expecting that to continue throughout the year.

Q3: Just looking at the tech sector as a whole, it seems to be under a bit of pressure at the moment. How do you see the company positioned for investors?

A3: It is a tech company undoubtedly, and a very, very innovative one but we think that despite the rotation that we’re seeing away from tech, the company, because of its characteristics, should be performing quite well.

The first point is that it’s not a high multiple stock that’s currently feeling most the pressure in the market right now, this is a stock that’s trading at only 10 times EBITDA, 14 times PE and even a free cash flow yield of 8%. So, the type of thing that even value investors would be looking for so I don’t think it should be caught in that downdraft.

The second point is in any uncertain environment that we might be seeing, they have proven that it has very, very high earnings reliability. Its online presence division provides internet infrastructure so clearly that’s going to be resilient during downturn and its proven to be the case. Its online marketing division is currently in a very strong secular growth trend, it was able to accelerate through the last downturn so lots of resilience provided fundamentally. It’s also got a very, very diverse customer base, it’s customer and customer bases consists largely of thousands and thousands of SEM’s so it’s not exposed to any one customer at all.

Finally, we touched on this briefly, the company is able to deliver a lot of value through acquisitions. It’s got a strong acquisition track record over the last couple of years, it’s a consolidator in the market and the market is mostly filled with smaller lifestyle businesses. As a result, it can source these attractive transactions that single digit multiples and realise significant synergies from them.

So, CentralNic Group, to us, appears undervalued and offers investors multiple catalysts for continued share price momentum.

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CentralNic Group

CentralNic Group “should be more growth and better value to come” says Edison Investment Research (LON:CNIC)

CentralNic Group plc (LON:CNIC) is the topic of conversation when Edison Investment Research’s Analyst Richard Williamson caught up with DirectorsTalk for an exclusive interview.

Q1: Can you tell us more about what CentralNic Group does?

A1: CNIC is a slightly unusual story in the UK market so there aren’t many companies directly comparable to it. What it does is it’s got two principal businesses, online presence and online marketing, and essentially what it is doing is providing the tools for businesses to go online.

So, in the online presence business, it sells domain names, subscriptions and other key elements to enable companies to go online and operate email and websites, as well as value added services such as reselling, hosting, website building and security certification.

On the online marketing side, the online marketing side is a relatively new business for the group, so they bought into this business about two years ago with the acquisition of Team Internet. What it does is it helps companies or investors monetize websites and what I mean by that is, essentially, companies and people who surf the internet go to certain websites and for that traffic, the company provides a way of monetizing that traffic to service investors of websites and owners of websites.

Q2: Now it seems like online presence has been growing strongly, but online marketing has been growing even more strongly. Do you think this growth can continue?

A2: Well, it has been a fascinating story. So, certainly over the course of FY20, looking at the organic growth figures, last year the company delivered organic growth of 9%, in Q1, I think it was up to 16%, in H1 it was 20%, and for the nine months, it was 29%.

So, it has been fascinating that essentially the company started an investment programme last year and investing circa $8/$9 million in the platform in essentially bringing the business together as well as strengthening the management team and staffing. That really does seem to have kicked into much higher growth in FY21 and set the company really on track for continued growth in the future.

So, I’m going to be slightly cautious here, but there certainly don’t appear to be any reasons why growth should slow down and the message that the company put out in the nine months results was very much that they expect this level of growth to continue for the remainder of the year. After that, it’s just a question of lack of visibility, but I don’t see any reason why there should be a massive step down in growth but let’s take it as it comes.

Certainly, the marketing side of the business is outgrowing the online presence side so that there is a disparity in growth there and as a result of that disparity in growth, I suppose online marketing is now, in revenue terms, the majority of the business, having only been acquired and added to the business at the back end of 2019.

So, there’s plenty of growth, strong growth across the business but particularly in online marketing and in a global advertising market that could well continue.

Q3: Over the years, the company had been very active on the M&A front, 2021 has been a little subdued in that respect. Do you think the buy and build model has changed at all?

A3: I think this is quite interesting, I suppose before 2021 investors were slightly nervous about the underlying health of the business and if they stopped doing M&A, what would that mean for the business? 2021 has lifted the veil and you can now see that the underlying organic growth is fantastic, and the business is continuing to perform strongly even without, again, there has been M&A but just a lower level of M&A.

So, even in 2021, the company has made three smallish acquisitions so following the large, multiple acquisitions made in 2019 and 2020 that’s a lower level of M&A, I don’t see any reason why M&A should not now continue. They operate in global markets and fragmented markets with the opportunity to acquire both in the domain names side of the business, as well as in the marketing side.

The company has net debt of about $79 million so in terms of leverage of about 15% and a net debt to EBITDA multiple of around 2/2.5/ 2.6 times so all told, I think that’s a very sustainable level of debt given the EBITDA, the cashflow that this business generates.

Early in ‘21, they secured shareholder approval for €150 million of bond issue and they’ve drawn €105 million of that so they’ve got €45 million still undrawn from that approval.

So, they are not over geared, they have debt headroom or headroom on the bond and of course, they have the potential for equity fundraising in the future. Potentially, particularly now the share price has ticked up so 6-12 months ago, the trading range was probably 80p to 100p and now they seem to have broken through a barrier and are up to about 140p to 150p, they may consider in the future that equity fundraising is something they will contemplate where previously everything has been debt funded.

Q4: CentralNic Group’s share price three months ago was just around £1 and now it’s trading over 145p. In your view Richard, should we consider these shares now expensive?

A4: The quick answer to that is no. The company trades on a PE multiple of about 16 times FY21 earnings and EV/EBITDA multiple of about 11/12 times. So, for the sort of levels of growth you’re getting here and our forecast for FY21 are 59% sales growth, and the company has generated a sort of revenue CAGR of about 78% over the last five years so this really is a high growth story.

The company is now at a point where it is gaining scale, still in the grand scheme of things, not large so market cap is about £300 million and £350 million pounds so there’s plenty of growth still to go.

I just feel that they have now achieved a level of credibility with investors, so I think there was a technical overhang 6-12 months ago that was subduing the share price, that has now been removed. The share price has moved to a new level, but with the growth set to continue, M&A set to continue and plenty of markets which they could consolidate and, dare I say it, a very attractive business model which is very sticky, high recurring revenues, fantastic cash conversion, they look well set for the future and to progress further from here.

So, I remain optimistic that there should be more growth and better value to come.

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CentralNic Group

CentralNic Group “tracking well ahead of our expectations” says Zeus Capital (LON:CNIC)

CentralNic Group plc (LON:CNIC) is the topic of conversation when Zeus Capital’s Technology Analyst Bob Liao caught up with DirectorsTalk for an exclusive interview.

CentralNic Group, a global internet platform company which derives recurring revenues selling online presence and marketing solutions, today issued a Q3 trading update and notice of results. Now, joining me today to discuss the company is Zeus Capital’s Bob Liao.

Q1: As mentioned, the company provided a trading update for the nine months of 2021, can you just tell us how the revenues and profits are tracking against the full-year expectations?

A1: They’re tracking well ahead, at least of our expectations. The company said they’d expect nine months revenue to be £280 million and that represents already 80% of our full-year forecast so they’re tracking ahead on the top line. With expected EBIDTA, they said EBITDA would be at least £32 million which is about 77% of our full-year forecasts.

So, it’s looking like the full-year, if things continue to go as planned, they’re going to be coming ahead significantly of our expectations especially if it’s a strong Q4 which it should be.

Q2: I understand the company’s organic growth for the nine month period was 29%, what’s driving that strong growth?

A2: There’s a couple of things driving up growth, one is their online marketing division which is their newest division and one that has been driving momentum over the last 18 months. They’ve been introducing a lot of new innovative products, they’ve been consolidating the market, using that scale to take market share and it’s a very strongly growing market, online marketing. So, that’s one major driver.

As well, the direct and indirect divisions, which has historically been the core of the business, is now accelerating growth and that’s because the company has made some significant investments in a lot of account management, sales and also in the product as well. That is resulting in the growth in that business, accelerating in the first-half was closer to the high single digits which is an improvement on the previous year. So, accelerating growth in that end of the business as well.

Overall, that’s a strong acceleration to 29% growth compares to 20% in the first half and only 9% in 2020 so momentum is only continuing for this one.

Q3: Just looking in Q4 and beyond, how do you view the outlook for CentralNic Group?

A3: I think the momentum has been strong for a while on the revenue front and what this trading update really says to us is that not only are we getting on the top line but it looks like the EBITDA has some earnings momentum behind it as well.

So, if you look at what the company said about trading for the full-year in terms of guidance and outlook, they’re talking about trading comfortably at or above the upper end of market expectations. That’s for both revenue and EBITDA so the outlook has been upgraded by the management team and again, I still think we see a bit of potential upside on top of that, based on the earnings outlook that we just talked about previously

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Analyst Notes & Comments

Team Internet Group

CentralNic Group revenue and adjusted EBITDA ahead of Edison forecasts

CentralNic Group plc (LON:CNIC) FY22 update confirmed accelerating momentum towards the end of the year, with revenue and adjusted EBITDA ahead of our forecasts, which we raised on 21 December. Its ability to effectively match advertisers with high-intent consumers, alongside global market demand for privacy-safe customer targeting solutions, continues to drive Online Marketing. Economies of scale and acquisitions have strengthened its operating leverage, leading to improved profitability. CentralNic’s attractive cash dynamics have supported a significant reduction in net debt, which we believe will continue to fall in FY23 in line with expected profit growth.

FY22: Ahead of consensus and our forecasts

CentralNic expects to report revenue of $728m, up 77% y-o-y and up 60% y-o-y organically. Revenue was also ahead of both our forecast and market consensus of $708m. Management expects adjusted EBITDA of more than $85m, equating to growth of at least 84% y-o-y and c 2% higher than our previous forecast. FY22 adjusted EBITDA to our net revenue estimate of $176m, which deducts costs directly passed onto its customers, was 48.5%, 9.5pp higher year-on-year as a result of stronger operating leverage from its scaling Online Marketing business and accretive acquisitions made in the year. Net debt decreased by $24m to $57m in the year, supported by expanding profit margins and an adjusted operating cash conversion (normalised operating profit/operating cash flow) in excess of 100%.

Forecasts revised

We have upgraded our FY22 revenue and profit forecasts based on the trading update. While we expect the same FY22 structural tailwinds to continue to drive demand in FY23, we believe revenue growth will be slower at 15% y-o-y as management moves its focus from high volumes of M&A to further strengthening its balance sheet and increasing returns to shareholders. We have left our FY23 profit and cash forecasts materially unchanged, reflecting potential operating cost pressures, particularly wage inflation and hiring needs.

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CentralNic analyst Zeus raise 2022 revenue forecast by 8% to $617m

CentralNic Group plc (LON:CNIC) LTM pro forma revenue growth accelerated again to 62% in Q2 2022, resulting in revenue of $335m and Adjusted EBITDA of $38m in H1. The company upgraded guidance, which appears very conservative. Even in the unlikely case of a sharp downturn leading to 16% sequential decline in Adjusted EBITDA in H2, the company would still meet revised guidance. We raise our 2022 revenue forecast by 8% to $617m and our Adjusted EBITDA by 4% to $70m and see the potential for strong earnings outperformance. Even based on our conservative forecasts, shares appear attractively valued at 6x 2022 EBITDA, 8x P/E and 12.5% FCFF yield. With increased estimates our valuation for CentralNic is lifted to 221p from 195p.

H1 trading update
¨ Long track record of accelerating growth: LTM pro forma revenue growth was an impressive 62% in Q2 and extends CentralNic’s long track record of accelerating growth from 53% in Q1, 37% in 2021 and 20% in 2020. There appears to be no signs of the potential weakness in CentralNic’s Online Marketing market that may be factored into the share price.

¨ Strong profits and cash generation: Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be $38m, resulting in margin of c.11.3% and in line with margins in 2021. Net debt including foreign exchange hedge liabilities is expected to be $65m, which is down by only $5.7m from $70.7m at the end of Q1. The relatively small decline in net debt is due to a sizable increase in hedging liabilities to $16.6m from $9.4m at the end of Q1. Excluding FX hedging liabilities, net debt would have fallen by $12.9m, which is c.66% of Q2 Adjusted EBITDA (c.$19.5m). The company estimated that adjusted operating cash conversion was over 100% in H1 2022.

¨ Guidance factors in extraordinary downturn: Given the strong H1 results, the company is now confident that full year 2022 results will be at least at the high end of the current market expectations ($603m revenue and $70m Adjusted EBITDA). This revised guidance factors in an extraordinary downturn in H2 2022, equivalent to sequential revenue decline of 20% and Adjusted EBITDA decline of 16%.

¨ Conservative forecast upgrade: We conservatively forecast $617m of revenue in 2022, 2% above the top end of current consensus, and Adjusted EBITDA of $70m, in line with the top end of current consensus. We estimate 37% pro forma growth in 2022, well below 62% pro forma growth already achieved in H1. (See charts overleaf for details.)

¨ Value for growth: Based on our conservative estimates, shares trade at only 6x 2022 EBITDA, 8x P/E and 12.5% FCFF yield. We raise of our DCF valuation from 195p to 221p, which is about 2x the current share price. Note that CentralNic Group shares were included in the AIM 100 and AIM UK 50 indices on 20 June 2022.

Summary financials

Price 113.5p
Market Cap £327.6m
Shares in issue 289m
12m Trading Range 86p – 154p
Free float 73%
Next Event Q2 results – 30 August

Financial forecasts

Yr end Dec ($’m) 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E
Revenue 410.5 617.1 654.1 693.4
YoY growth (%) 71 50.3 6 6
Gross profit 118.5 170.8 180.5 190.9
Adj. EBITDA 46.3 70 75.7 79.7
YoY growth (%) 57.3 51.3 8.1 5.3
EBITDA margin (%) 11.3 11.3 11.6 11.5
EBITDA margin 39 41 41.9 41.8
(Net revenue) (%)
EPS (c) basic adj. 11.8 17.4 18.8 20.2
DPS (p) 0.8 1.8
Net cash (debt)+ -81.4 -51.2 -11.5 34.6
EV/EBITDA (x) 8.3 6 5.2 4.4
EV/EBIT (x) 9 6.4 5.5 4.6
P/E (x) 11.6 7.8 7.2 6.7
FCFF yield (%) 9.1 12.5 13.2 17.4
Source: Audited Accounts and Zeus estimates

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CentralNic Group

CentralNic analyst Zeus “see room for significant earnings upside”

CentralNic Group plc (LON:CNIC) published Adjusted EBITDA slightly ahead of previously flagged estimates. The Online Marketing division grew 83% organically, up from 65% growth in 2021. Divisional KPIs indicate both volume and pricing growth remain strong. As the company scales, quarterly margins have steadily risen to levels ahead of our full year estimates. At the same time, cash conversion and net cash were strong and we believe are tracking ahead of our forecasts. The company’s strong Q1 performance makes full year earnings expectations appear conservative. By simply annualising Q1 EBITDA and adjusting for the VGL acquisition, we estimate EBITDA could reach $80m, 19% above our forecast of $67m. Even based on our conservative forecasts CentralNic trades at only 7.5x 2022 EBITDA, 10x P/E and 10% FCFF yield.

¨ EBITDA slightly ahead and strong divisional performance: CentralNic published Q1 Adjusted EBITDA slightly ahead of the level flagged in its April trading update ($18.5m v c. $18m) and reported organic revenue growth of 53%. Organic growth was again led by outstanding growth of the Online Marketing division (83%), with the Online Presence division delivering substantial growth (7%). The Online Marketing division increased the number of visitor sessions by 54% and increased revenue per thousand sessions (RPM) by 104% yoy.

¨ Continued operating leverage could drive margin outperformance: EBITDA/ Net revenue margins have been consistently trending up every quarter from 36% in Q1 2021 to 46% in Q1 2022, demonstrating operating leverage benefits that we have conservatively not factored into our 2022 margin estimate (42%).

¨ Potential net debt outperformance: Cash conversion and ending net cash were both strong and appear on track to outperform our estimates, even if we assume only 50% net cash conversion of EBITDA over the remaining three quarters of the year.

¨ VGL and acquisition outlook: The VGL acquisition appears to be performing strongly. CentralNic is establishing an extended track record of value-enhancing acquisitions. The company indicated that it has a strong pipeline of acquisition targets. We are supportive of further earnings accretive acquisitions to further diversify market growth, products and customer base.

¨ Conservative outlook: Despite the company’s strong revenue growth, margin performance and cash conversion relative to forecasts, CentralNic Group indicated that trading is “comfortably in line”. We leave our forecasts, which are in the lower half of the range of consensus estimates, unchanged but we see room for significant earnings upside. If we simply annualise Q1 EBITDA and adjust for the VGL acquisition, we estimate EBITDA could reach $80m, 19% above our forecast of $67m.

¨ Valuation: Even based on our conservative forecasts CentralNic’s strong growth and margins appear undervalued. Shares trades at only 7.5x 2022 EBITDA, 10x P/E and 10% FCFF yield despite delivering 53% organic growth and steady margin expansion.

Summary financials

Price 131p
Market Cap £378m
Shares in issue 289m
12m Trading Range 80p – 154p
Free float 72%
Next Event H1 update – 18 July

Financial forecasts

Yr end Dec ($’m) 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E
Revenue 410.5 573.4 607.3 643.4
YoY growth (%) 71 39.7 5.9 5.9
Gross profit 118.5 159.9 168.8 178.4
SG&A -72.2 -92.9 -96.5 -102.3
Adj. EBITDA 46.3 67 72.3 76.1
YoY growth (%) 57.3 44.9 7.9 5.2
Adj. EBITDA (%) 11.3 11.7 11.9 11.8
EPS (c) basic adj. 11.8 16.5 17.8 19.1
DPS (p) 0.8 1.8
Net cash (debt) -75 -46.3 -8.1 35.8
EV/EBITDA (x) 9.6 7.5 6.6 5.7
EV/EBIT (x) 10.4 8 7 6
P/E (x) 14.2 10.1 9.4 8.8
FCFF yield (%) 7.8 10.2 10.6 13.5
Div Yield (%) 0.6 1.4

Source: Audited Accounts and Zeus estimates

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CentralNic Group

CentralNic Group “tracking well ahead of our full year forecasts” says Zeus

CentralNic Group plc (LON:CNIC) released a very strong Q1 trading update, which drove the board to materially upgrade full year outlook even at this early stage of the year. The company further accelerated trailing twelve months organic revenue growth through Q1 to c. 51% (2021: 39%). Outperformance was again largely driven by the Online Marketing division, which continued to benefit from market share gains and market trends towards advertising solutions that can identify and refine consumer purchasing intent without third party cookies.

The company now expects full year results to be materially above consensus expectations. Given macroeconomic uncertainties ahead, we conservatively upgrade our revenue by 11% to $573.4m from $516.1m and Adjusted EBITDA forecast by 11% to $67.0m from $60.5m. However, we see further earnings upside in lieu of negative scenarios: If we simply annualise Q1 preliminary EBITDA and adjust for the VGL acquisition, we estimate EBITDA would reach $78m, equal to a 29% upgrade. However, even based on our conservative forecasts, CentralNic shares trade at only 7x 2022 EBITDA, 10x P/E and 11% FCFF yield.

Q1 update and forecast revisions

¨ Q1 trading: Revenue was c. $156m and Adjusted EBITDA was c. $18m. The company appears to be tracking well ahead of our full year forecasts. Simply annualising Q1 figures would result in revenue and Adjusted EBITDA of $624m and $72m, 21% and 19% above our original forecasts of $516m and $61m, respectively. Net debt fell to $65m from $75m at the end of 2021. Excluding c. $8m increase in net debt from the VGL acquisition and adding in $3m of increased bond hedge liability, the decrease in this adjusted net debt would be c. $15m, which was supported by over 100% adjusted operating cash conversion.

¨ Upgrade momentum: CentralNic Group is extending a string of earnings upgrades, supported by a strong investment case. They are a market leader in two high growth markets – digital advertising and domain name management. In addition, both divisions have attractive business models. They generate reliable revenues based on subscriptions and serve diversified customer bases. We believe the company’s strong growth, high revenue visibility, earnings momentum and high cash conversion are undervalued by its shares’ low multiples. Shares trade at only 7x 2022 EBITDA, 10x P/E and 11% FCFF yield. Our DCF valuation is 195p, 65% above the current share price.

Summary financials

Price 118p
Market Cap £341m
Shares in issue 289m
12m Trading Range 80p – 154p
Free float 72%
Next Event Q1 results – May

Financial forecasts

Yr end Dec ($’m) 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E
Revenue 410.5 573.4 607.3 643.4
YoY growth (%) 71 39.7 5.9 5.9
Gross profit 118.5 159.9 168.8 178.4
SG&A -72.2 -92.9 -96.5 -102.3
Adj. EBITDA 46.3 67 72.3 76.1
YoY growth (%) 57.3 44.9 7.9 5.2
Adj. EBITDA (%) 11.3 11.7 11.9 11.8
EPS (c) basic adj. 11.8 16.5 17.8 19.1
DPS (p) 0.8 1.8
Net cash (debt) -75 -46.2 -8.2 35.4
EV/EBITDA (x) 9.2 7.1 6.3 5.4
EV/EBIT (x) 9.9 7.5 6.6 5.7
P/E (x) 13.4 9.6 8.8 8.3
FCFF yield (%) 8.2 10.8 11.2 14.4
Div Yield (%) 0.7 1.5

Source: Audited Accounts and Zeus estimates

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Data policy – All information should be used for indicative purposes only. You should independently check data before making any investment decision and or seek professional advice. DirectorsTalk cannot guarantee that the data is accurate or complete, and accepts no responsibility for how it may be used.