Predictions
- Kenyatta will win sufficient county-level support to secure parliamentary debate on proposed constitutional changes in coming months
- Risk of clashes between Kenyatta and Ruto supporters will increase as political rallies become more frequent ahead of likely June referendum
- Continued targeting of Ruto allies will widen rift within ruling Jubilee party, increasing likelihood that deputy president will break with party later this year
Event
The ruling Jubilee Party (JPK) removed Senator Irungu Kang’ata as majority chief whip on 9 February. Jubilee Secretary General Raphael Tuju said the decision was made after Kang’ata leaked confidential information and lost the trust of other senators, dismissing claims the move was in response to an open letter Kang’ata wrote last month criticising President Kenyatta’s Building Bridges Initiative (BBI).
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