US recession expectations

Insightful summer survey results recently conducted by Jim Reid and the team at Deutsche (400 FM responses).

Shown in the first chart below, expectations over an impending US recession have been pushed back sharply during the quarter, with those now projecting a 2024 ‘arrival’ more than doubling from March’s survey to 48%. This certainly chimes with the move up in selective risk assets in 1H.

In terms of magnitude, as the second chart illustrates, the weighted average (Deutsche methodology) is for a peak-to-trough GDP loss of approximately -1.8%, adjusted upwards to -1.6% to account for the 11% not expecting a recession.

TEAM plc (LON:TEAM) is building a new wealth, asset management and complementary financial services group. With a focus on the UK, Crown Dependencies and International Finance Centres, the strategy is to build local businesses of scale around TEAM’s core skill of providing investment management services.

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