Advanced Oncotherapy Plc (LON:AVO) focused on delivering a more affordable, novel proton-based radiotherapy system, based on a technology originally developed and tested at the world renowned CERN facility in Switzerland. Its uniqueness lies in the fact that the accelerator is a linear one which confers substantial benefits and flexibility to the operator, payor and patient. With its first purchase order in March 2015 ($40m) as well as the recent agreement with CircleHealth, to have the first installation of a LIGHT system in 2016-2017 in London, the Company is entering a c.$680m market on the cusp of a steepening adoption curve with a disruptive technology.
► Strategy: To develop a proton therapy (PT) system addressing the needs of the patient, operator and payor (private, insurance or national health system), at an affordable price for the payor, which is financially attractive to the operator and, most importantly, generates superior clinical outcomes for the patient.
► Addressable market: Entering a PT market that is currently valued at c.$680m but forecast to grow to c.$10bn in 2025, +27% pa; driven by rising cancer incidence, increased use of radiotherapy (“RT”), particularly in emerging markets, clinical validation of PT, echnological advances and market adoption.
► Valuation: With one system sale completed ($40m), a potential order book of 9 systems ($360m+), and the capacity to produce up to 30 systems p.a. there is still insufficient visibility to produce meaningful long term forecasts. Suffice to say, additional orders should translate into further significant share price gains.
► Risks: Delays to completing LIGHT installation in Harley Street in 2017 and first patient treatment in 4Q 2017 – both mitigated by partnership supplier network, and the small size relative to its principal competitors which impacts potentially on vendor financing capability as well as external perceptions.
► Investment summary: Advanced Oncotherapy Plc is entering a market on the cusp of a steepening adoption curve with a Proton Therapy solution that is unique with respect to its competitors and addresses the needs of all key stakeholders (patient, payor and operator). The company has sufficient cash to achieve its near term goal of first patient treatment in 2017 beyond which additional capital may be required.
