Predictions
- Al-Qaeda will exploit local ties and anti-French sentiment to extend influence in northern Mali and wider Sahel following Mali coup
- Despite AQAP’s criticism of UAE-Israel deal, limited jihadist capabilities in Emirates and robust domestic security operations will limit risk of attack
- Focus on local issues and community ties will ensure al-Qaeda maintains entrenched presence in Yemen and Afghanistan once foreign forces withdrawl
“Black Banners will appear from Khorasan. Nothing shall stop them until they are planted over Jerusalem.” (Imam Termezi, Hadith 2,269)
Note: This hadith is used by jihadists to highlight the importance of Jerusalem to their efforts to re-establish a caliphate, and is the principal justification for attacking Israel.
Event
Fighters with Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wa al-Muslimeen (JNIM), al-Qaeda’s West African alliance, reportedly forced Islamic State (IS) militants in Mali out of several towns near the border with Burkina Faso, according to pro-al-Qaeda media on 27 August. This comes just days after a military coup removed President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita from power on 18 August.
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