Predictions
- Opposition calls for strikes and protests will significantly raise security risks over election period, but President Ouattara remains poll frontrunner
- Anti-Ouattara campaign will intensify inter-ethnic north-south divisions, raising risks of violent protests in build-up to and following presidential vote
- Ouattara’s popularity following years of economic growth will likely ensure he wins 50% of votes, avoiding second-round run-off in late November
Event
An anti-government movement led by Henri Konan Bédié, a leading opposition candidate in the upcoming presidential election, announced plans for a civil disobedience campaign on 2 October in protest at President Alassane Ouattara’s bid for a third term in office.
Falanx Assynt is a global intelligence consultancy and leading provider of geopolitical, strategic and business risk analysis since 2003. Falanx Assynt is part of Falanx Group Ltd (LON:FLX) which, through its subsidiaries, provides cyber defence and intelligence services to blue chip and government clients worldwide.