Predictions
- Pipeline blast shows Islamic State will seek to target economic interests and exploit anti-Israeli sentiment, but security forces will remain primary target
- Limited capabilities mean attacks on oil infrastructure will likely be confined to sabotaging pipelines in remote, less secure areas
- Tempo of attacks will likely increase in coming months and around Coptic Christmas in January, but jihadist capabilities will remain limited to North Sinai
Event
A blast damaged the al-Arish al-Qantara natural gas pipeline in North Sinai on 19 November. Islamic State (IS) claimed responsibility for the explosion, saying its fighters had detonated IEDs along Egypt’s natural gas pipeline to Israel “causing great material damage”, although it provided no evidence to support its claim.
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