INDICES
FTSE 100
After Monday’s defence of the 6240 area, and yesterday’s tight session, we wait to see which side has the strength to establish a direction. With the price still stuck below 6340 it looks like the approach is still to sell rallies as they appear, but with so much data and news crammed into the next 48 hours it may be that the index continues to drift. A close below 6240 would suggest that further downside is on its way, with targets around 6170 and then 6070. Any bounce has to clear 6340, but also then go on to establish a new high above 6420 to confirm a bullish trend. |
|
Dax
The drift lower since the peak on 21 April suggests that weakness will continue to dominate here. 10,200 has acted as support over the previous two sessions, but a break below here suggests a move to 10,100 and then 99,00, the low of 18 April. It would need a move back above 10,400 in the first instance to cancel out a bearish move, with the index needing to clear 10,500 to confirm a fresh upward move. |
|
Dow
US markets have to content with the Fed decision this evening, and thus we may see significant volatility in the coming session. However, the failure to push on last night indicated that bullish momentum is still lacking. A move back above 18,100 would suggest the consolidation of recent sessions has run its course. The area down towards 17,850 has seen buyers come back, stemming the downside, so we would need to see a drop through this area to confirm more bearish momentum. |
|
FX
EURUSD rallying within broadening formation
EURUSD has seen yet another sharp rally this morning, following on from the big move higher yesterday afternoon. It is clear that as this week progresses, volatility is rising to create a broadening formation. These patterns are invariably difficult to trade. However, the key here is the ability to break through both trendline (1.1323) and horizontal resistance (1.1339) to continue the creation of higher highs. It is worth bearing in mind that this pair has been trending lower throughout April and thus the longer term outlook portrays a market which could turn lower once more rather than break through the 1.1396 level. With that in mind, a bearish outlook would be preferred around the 76.4% level at 1.1355, where a break through 1.1397 negates this expectation for the market to turn lower in the near future. |
|
GBPUSD turns higher once more
GBPUSD is once more moving higher, following support from an inside trendline. Recent sterling strength has been so consistent that very few pullbacks seem to occur. Thus many will have seen this early weakness as an opportunity to enter. Ultimately, we continue to create higher highs and higher lows. Thus a break through yesterday’s high of 1.4639 seems likely, where the next resistance level would come at 1.4668. This bullish view holds unless we see an hourly close below 1.4514 which would subsequently look towards 1.4459 as the next key support. |
|
USDJPY drifts lower, but further gains expected
USDJPY saw a break higher yesterday, following a pull back to the 76.4% retracement yesterday. The subsequent creation of a new intraday high pointed towards a resurgence for the pair, with a move back towards Friday’s high of 111.84 seemingly on the cards. However, be aware that with the BoJ meeting looming, some hesitancy and irrational market moves could happen due to repositioning ahead of that major risk event. Key support levels of note are at 110.66 and 110.28, whereas resistance is likely at 111.50 and 111.84. |
|
COMMODITIES
Gold
Prices are moving back to the top end of the range, with the key $1250 – $1265 area now in prospect. However, it needs a breakout above $1260 to confirm that we are looking at a move back to $1280. Otherwise, the rally could peter out and then move back down towards $1220. |
|
Brent
Having hit a fresh high for the year it would seem that the buyers are firmly back in charge. With the price now firmly overbought intraday, and with so much data out in in the next few hours, it may be that the price moves lower, perhaps down to $45.50, or the 50-hour SMA at $45.14. The probability of a drop back down is heightened by the fact that the price is now at the late November high of $46.50, so this resistance needs to be cleared for any further advance. |
|
WTI
Having pushed on to new highs for the year, WTI now looks to move in the direction of the early November high at $48.30. The trend for April is a firmly rising one, so with the price overbought intraday it may prove to be sensible to wait for a bigger pullback, down to the 50-hour SMA at $43.55, rather than chasing the move of the past 24 hours. |
|
Disclaimer
This research has been produced by an independent third party provider. Further details can be provided on request. Guardian Stockbrokers Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (No. 492519). This report has been prepared using information available from public sources, which are believed to be reliable as at the date of this report. However, Guardian Stockbrokers, its employees and its independent third party provider make no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of this report. This report should therefore not be relied on as accurate or complete. The facts and opinions on this report are subject to change without notice. Guardian Stockbrokers, its employees and its independent third party provider have no obligation to modify or update this report in the event that any information on this report becomes inaccurate. This report is prepared for informational purpose only, with no recommendation or solicitation to buy or to sell. The background of any individual or other investor has not been considered in providing this report. Individuals and other investors should seek independent financial advice which considers their specific risks, objectives and specific constraints, and make their own informed decisions. Individuals and other investors should note that investing in shares carries a degree of risk and the value of investments can go up or down. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Investments should be made with regard to an investor’s total portfolio. Guardian Stockbrokers, its independent third party provider and its employees make no representation or guarantee with regard to any investment noted on this report, and shall therefore not be liable with regard to any loss.
All trading involves risk and losses can exceed deposits.
|
|
|
|
