Predictions
- Declaration of new Papuan government in exile will have limited impact given divisions within independence movement
- Jakarta will maintain staunch anti-separatist stance, ensuring no likelihood of major concessions to independence campaigners
- Declaration unlikely to provoke protests or increased militancy, but security crackdown will raise potential for degree of retaliatory violence
Event
The United Liberation Movement for West Papua (ULMWP) said on 1 December that its UK-based leader Benny Wenda would become the president of a “government-in-waiting” and promulgated a new constitution for an independent West Papua.
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