Mariana Resources “orebody arguably discovery of the year 2015”

Northland Capital partners view: The discovery of the 3moz Au eq. ultra high-grade (11.2g/t Au eq.) Hot Maden orebody was arguably the discovery of the year in 2015, yet its value has yet to be recognised by the market. With a resource upgrade expected and a PEA expected to be completed during the year, there are a number of major catalysts coming up for Mariana. We have made a relatively minor change to our forecasts as the total US$8m expected to be spent on Hot Maden in 2016 (30% Mariana) was slight lower than our expectations of US$10m.

Mariana Resources (MARL.L) – BUY*: JV update
Market Cap: £14m; Current Price: 1.6p; Target Price: 4.8p
 
Joint venture and shareholders agreement with Lidya
n  Mariana Resources and joint venture partner Lidya have signed a comprehensive agreement to further explore and develop the Hot Maden Project, located in Turkey.

n  The agreement governs Mariana’s 30% interest and Lidya’s 70% interest in the project, which will be managed by a four-member Board. Three members of the Board will represent Lidya and one will represent Mariana.

n  For 2016, a total budget of US$8m is proposed at Hot Maden to complete 20,000m of extension and infill drilling with around 5,000m expected to be complete in Q116.

n  A preliminary economic assessment (PEA) is expected to be completed for the Project by Q416.

n  Minor changes to Forecasts. No change to BUY rating or 4.8p price target.

Year end Dec Revs (£m) Adj. EBITDA (£m) Adj. PBT (£m) Tax (%) Adj. EPS (p) PER (x) Div (p) Net cash (£m) Yield (%)
2013A  0.0 (1.2) (1.1) (0.4) NEG  2.7
 2014A  0.1 (1.4) (1.5) (0.4) NEG (0.6)
 2015E  0.1 (2.1) (2.2) (0.3) NEG  0.9
 2016E† (2.3) (2.3) (0.2) NEG  0.1

Source: Northland Capital Partners Limited. *Northland provides commissioned research coverage † assumes a £4.5m equity financing at current market price

 

 
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