Predictions
- Vast majority of ethnic armed groups will continue actively opposing junta despite credible reports of military offering unilateral ceasefire
- Small splinter factions of some ethnic armed groups may accept ceasefire with aim of strengthening own control and influence
- Severe depreciation of kyat and import bans will worsen hardship over coming months, sustaining high levels of opposition
Event
Radio Free Asia – a non-profit news service – reported on 28 September that the previous day the military had announced a unilateral “goodwill” ceasefire with all ethnic armed organisations from 1 October until the end of February 2022.
Falanx Assynt is a global intelligence consultancy and leading provider of geopolitical, strategic and business risk analysis since 2003. Falanx Assynt is part of Falanx Group Ltd (LON:FLX) which, through its subsidiaries, provides cyber defence and intelligence services to blue chip and government clients worldwide.