The oil price has entered a very favorable seasonal cycle. The first chart is that of the monthly oil price histogram. The histogram shows the monthly expected return. Note that oil is in the most favorable seasonal period. In fact, price has risen from March 20th to May 21st 77% of the time.
The second graph is the monthly cycle which rises into May. This dynamic cycle matches and reinforces the static seasonal cycle.
The net result is the breakout on the daily graph, number three. Price has broken out of the triangle formation that contained price for three months. The breakout occurred on Friday, supported by higher lows in momentum and rising relative strength versus the commodity index. Price has a near objective of $85 and $94.
Serinus Energy plc (LON:SENX) is an international oil company with operations in Romania and Tunisia. The focus of the Company is to enhance shareholder value by growing oil and gas production through the efficient allocation of capital.