- Raid on militant cell with credible links to Iran illustrates Tehran’s continued capabilities in Saudi Arabia, but risk of attack will remain low for now
- Major escalation in tensions with Iran would raise risk of attack against oil infrastructure or government targets, although Tehran will prioritise proxy operations in Iraq
- Sustained crackdown on Shia activism in Eastern province will sustain threat of violence, but capabilities of security forces will ensure this remains low-level
Saudi officials claimed on 28 September that security forces had arrested 10 people in a raid against a “terrorist cell” with ties to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
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