Raid on militant cell with credible links to Iran illustrates Tehran’s continued capabilities in Saudi Arabia

Predictions

  • Raid on militant cell with credible links to Iran illustrates Tehran’s continued capabilities in Saudi Arabia, but risk of attack will remain low for now
  • Major escalation in tensions with Iran would raise risk of attack against oil infrastructure or government targets, although Tehran will prioritise proxy operations in Iraq
  • Sustained crackdown on Shia activism in Eastern province will sustain threat of violence, but capabilities of security forces will ensure this remains low-level

Event

Saudi officials claimed on 28 September that security forces had arrested 10 people in a raid against a “terrorist cell” with ties to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Falanx Assynt is a global intelligence consultancy and leading provider of geopolitical, strategic and business risk analysis since 2003. Falanx Assynt is part of Falanx Group Ltd (LON:FLX) which, through its subsidiaries, provides cyber defence and intelligence services to blue chip and government clients worldwide.

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