Predictions Lenient sentences for Papuan protestors will limit risk of unrest but do not suggest major policy shift is likely Persistence of endemic racism against Papuans will limit pressure on

Predictions Emirati officials’ statements indicate Abu Dhabi will continue efforts to improve ties with Israel, despite Tel Aviv’s West Bank annexation plans UAE will issue condemnation of Israel if annexations

Predictions Lengthy jail sentence for president’s chief of staff following graft conviction will not trigger broader anti-corruption drive President’s reliance on former President Kabila’s party to ensure legislative majority will

Predictions Renewed anti-PKK operation will aim to boost President’s popularity, though more significant ground offensive in Iraq remains unlikely Airstrikes in Iraq will prompt increase in risk of militant attacks

Predictions Criticism of Trump administration’s response to protests, combined with economic weaknesses, suggests president will likely fail to win second term Racial issues will remain prominent theme throughout presidential campaign,

Full Report: Mexico Predictions President’s move to accelerate controversial ‘Tren Maya’ project will further increase reputational, commercial and legal risks for firms involved Lack of key risk assessments, competitive bidding

Black Banners Predictions Al-Qaeda will seek to avenge death of AQM leader Droukdel, raising risk of major attack on Western interests in Sahel in coming months Droukdel’s death marks further

Afghanistan Predictions Airstrikes on Taliban positions show Washington will increase pressure on Kabul and Taliban to begin negotiations Pressure from Washington and Islamabad means Kabul will likely release further prisoners,

Full Report: Vietnam Predictions Pressure on economy, particularly tourism industry, will encourage government to slowly resume international travel Risk of second wave of COVID-19 infections means government restrictions will remain

Predictions Qatar will seek to penalise companies over late payment of wages following rare protest by construction workers Continued limitations on workers’ freedoms, despite recent reforms, mean risk of disruptive