Upside potential for housing market in 2023

Rising mortgage interest rates clobbered the single family housing market in 2022, leading to transaction volumes falling sharply and small declines in prices. The market in 2023 will most likely weaken, but some upward potential must be considered—even by those of us who remain pessimistic.

The problems are well known. First, home prices rose to nearly unscalable heights. In the years just before the pandemic, prices (adjusted for house quality) had risen by about six percent per year. In 2020 the gain accelerated to 12%, then 18% in 2021. By the middle of 2022, home prices were roughly 25% higher than the pre-pandemic trend line. That priced many first-time home buyers out of the market.

Real Estate Credit Investments Limited (LON:RECI) is a closed-ended investment company which originates and invests in real estate debt secured by commercial or residential properties in Western Europe, focusing primarily on the United Kingdom, France and Germany.

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