Value investing strategy to outperform in 2023 for Asian equities

Nitin Bajaj, portfolio manager of Fidelity Asian Values PLC (LON:FAS), outlines why he expects value to continue its strong run as we head into 2023, and why he believes that China presents a unique investment opportunity at current valuations.

Key points

  • China is an integral part of the global economy and despite recent market upheavals, it is very hard for it to become irrelevant. And hence, mean reversion (the assumption that an asset’s price will tend to converge to the average price over time) is my base case for China and in such a scenario, I believe a lot of companies are trading well below intrinsic value in China.
  • With the current decline in stock prices in Korea and Taiwan, I believe some of the well managed companies are now trading at reasonable valuations and we are investigating a number of these.
  • I believe we will be in a period of sustained outperformance of value stocks given they are still trading at very significant discount to so called growth stocks and in an environment where interest rates are not zero anymore, investors will focus more on cash flows and solid businesses.

Predicting where markets are headed is always a bit speculative.  My focus is Asian equities, and my style is very heavily weighted towards value stocks. Currently I continue to find a lot of companies which have strong long-term businesses, are run by competent and honest people and available with a significant margin of safety.

This is most true in China. I understand the reservations people have on China and the general negative sentiment. I have witnessed this level of negativity a couple of times previously in my career – namely in the US in 2008/09 and India in 2012/13.  And history does rhyme. In my view, China can only be considered uninvestable if we believe that it is either the next Russia or the next Turkey.

My feeling is that China is such an important part of the global economy and a system which is built on both central party leadership but also entrepreneurial ability of the people – that it is very hard for it to become irrelevant.  And hence, mean reversion is my base case.  In that scenario, I believe a lot of companies are trading well below intrinsic value in China.

What could surprise markets in 2023?

Surprises are generally unforecastable. For me the key is to own businesses which can withstand unexpected negative surprises. That comes from owning good businesses with competent management which are conservatively financed and not overpaying for them.

Positioning for what lies ahead in 2023

I have been finding many companies in China that have good businesses and are available with a very good margin of safety.

Incrementally, I am also spending more time in Korea and Taiwan as valuations have corrected significantly – specially in Korea. We have struggled in the past to find many investable businesses in Korea due to corporate governance reasons.  However, with the current decline is stock prices, some of the well managed companies are now trading at reasonable valuations and we are investigating a number of these.

Taiwan has historically been a very shareholder friendly jurisdiction, albeit very cyclical given high exposure to very competitive areas of technology hardware.  With the current downcycle in technology, we expect to be able to back some of the long-term winners at attractive prices.  Again, we are spending increasingly more time on this space.

Conversely, I find valuations for smaller companies in India very challenging.  There are some very well-run businesses in India, but most are priced to perfection.  Most of our current exposure in India is with banks and a few special situations.

My process of owning good businesses, run by competent and honest people and buying them at  a good margin of safety will not change. So, in that sense, very little changes from one year to the other.

I believe we will be in a period of sustained outperformance of value stocks given they are still trading at very significant discount to so called growth stocks and in an environment where interest rates are not zero anymore (hence less fuel to speculate), investors will focus more on cash flows and solid businesses.

Sustainability considerations

Sustainability has been an integral part of investing for me since I have managed money. I find it bizarre that we think investing and sustainability are separate. It is very hard to make money by investing with dishonest management or with companies who mistreat employees or fool customers or harm societies they work in.

Important information

The value of investments can go down as well as up so you may get back less than you invest. Changes in currency exchange rates may affect the value of investments in overseas markets. Fidelity Asian Values PLC can use financial derivative instruments for investment purposes, which may expose them to a higher degree of risk and can cause investments to experience larger than average price fluctuations. This Investment Trust invests in emerging markets which can be more volatile than other more developed markets. This trust invests more heavily than others in smaller companies, which can carry a higher risk because their share prices may be more volatile than those of larger companies and the securities are often less liquid. The shares in the investment trust are listed on the London Stock Exchange and their price is affected by supply and demand. The investment trust can gain additional exposure to the market, known as gearing, potentially increasing volatility. Investors should note that the views expressed may no longer be current and may have already been acted upon. This information is not a personal recommendation for any particular investment. If you are unsure about the suitability of an investment you should speak to an authorised financial adviser.

The latest annual reports, key information document (KID) and factsheets can be obtained from our website at www.fidelity.co.uk/its or by calling 0800 41 41 10. The full prospectus may also be obtained from Fidelity. The Alternative Investment Fund Manager (AIFM) of Fidelity Investment Trusts is FIL Investment Services (UK) Limited. Issued by Financial Administration Services Limited, authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Fidelity, Fidelity International, the Fidelity International logo and F symbol are trademarks of FIL Limited. UKM1122/380770 B/ISSCSO00101/NA

Fidelity Asian Values Plc (LON:FAS) provides shareholders with a differentiated equity exposure to Asian Markets. Asia is the world’s fastest-growing economic region and the trust looks to capitalise on this by finding good businesses, run by good people and buying them at a good price.

Click to view all articles for the EPIC:
Or click to view the full company profile:
Facebook
X
LinkedIn
Fidelity International

More articles like this

Fidelity Asian Values

Asian stocks surge amid US tech rally

Asian stocks experienced a notable rise, spurred by a surge in large US tech shares, which propelled Wall Street to another record high. Most benchmarks in Asia saw gains, with Japan, Australia, and South Korea leading

Fidelity Asian Values

Asian earnings growth to surpass US and Europe

Earnings growth in Asia is forecasted to outpace that of the US and Europe for both this year and the next, according to a recent analysis by CLSA, which cites Bloomberg’s projections. This optimistic outlook aligns

Fidelity Asian Values

Asian markets surge on interest rate cut speculation and AI boom

Asian stocks saw a significant rise on Monday, driven by speculation over potential interest rate cuts by major central banks, which increased appetite for risk-driven assets. Technology-heavy indexes were the standout performers, particularly boosted by chipmakers.

Fidelity Asian Values

Southeast Asia attracting billion-dollar investments

Big tech continues to pour significant investments into Southeast Asia, with Malaysia recently securing a multi-billion dollar commitment from Google. This comes just weeks after Microsoft announced its own substantial investment of $2.2 billion into Malaysia’s

Fidelity Asian Values

Asian markets rise on Chinese stimulus measures

Most Asian stocks increased on Monday, driven by stimulus measures in China. Technology-heavy indices also advanced as investors bought into the sector ahead of key earnings reports this week. Regional markets continued to build on last

Fidelity Asian Values

Asian stocks rise on optimism of Fed rate cuts

Asian stocks eked out gains on Tuesday, following Wall Street’s advance on optimism the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates this year. The yen dropped.  A gauge of regional equities is set for its longest

Fidelity Asian Values

Asian stocks rise as tech tracks bumper US earnings

Most Asian stocks rose on Friday, buoyed by gains in the technology sector as investors cheered strong earnings from Microsoft and Alphabet, although anticipation of more cues on interest rates kept sentiment in check.  Japanese stocks

Fidelity Asian Values

Asian stocks rise on optimism of potential US rate cuts

Most Asian stocks rose on Thursday, driven by optimism about potential U.S. interest rate cuts, even as the timing of the move remained uncertain, while regional currencies were little changed. South Korean .KS11 and Indonesian .JKSEstocks advanced 1.3%and 0.8%,

Fidelity Asian Values

Asian stock markets rise as dollar strengthens

Asian stock markets witnessed an uptick on Tuesday, while the dollar gained strength, keeping the yen near the critical 152-per-dollar mark that has sparked concerns about potential intervention. The shift in market dynamics was driven by