Despite ongoing concerns about geopolitical risks, particularly those involving US-China relations amidst an election year in the US, Deutsche Bank Private Bank maintains a positive outlook on the Chinese market. This optimism spans tactical, medium, and long-term perspectives. Stefanie Holtze-Jen, Deutsche Bank Private Bank’s APAC chief investment officer, highlighted this perspective during a media briefing, noting that despite discussions about potential future sanctions, China is viewed constructively and is seen as a significant opportunity for the latter half of 2024.
China has shifted its economic focus from being export-oriented to stimulating domestic consumer demand. Measures to encourage consumers to trade in used goods for newer, greener alternatives are part of this strategy. These efforts have led Deutsche Bank to revise its GDP forecast for China from 4.8 percent to 5 percent for 2024, reflecting the positive impact of various tailwinds.
However, domestic risks remain, particularly within the property sector. A recent housing rescue package is expected to provide medium-term relief, though Deutsche Bank anticipates the slowdown in real estate investments to stabilise this year. Holtze-Jen mentioned the upcoming July Communist Party plenum as a significant event where further stimulus measures might be introduced.
Beyond China, Deutsche Bank is also optimistic about the broader APAC market, including Japan, with a particularly positive outlook on the tech, industrial, and consumer sectors.
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