Predictions Foreign tech firms’ removal of opposition-linked app from online stores will embolden Kremlin to increase pressure over online content and user data Opposition will focus on exposing official corruption

Predictions Disagreements within ruling coalition will weaken president’s authority, strengthen radical faction and raise risk of default on foreign debt Government will lift COVID-19 restrictions and boost spending in attempt

Predictions US-China talks will progress slowly amid pressure from businesses to reduce tariffs and sanctions, but substantial changes unlikely in coming year Washington may announce new investigations into Beijing’s trade

Predictions Rapidly rising inflation will increase financial pressure on public and add to economic and political volatility Central bank will likely raise interest rates again to combat rising food, transport

Predictions Central American migrant flow towards US will likely increase, driven by easing COVID-19 restrictions and positive perceptions of Biden administration Companies operating in southern US and northern Mexico will

Predictions Major disruptions to shipping will continue until at least early 2022, significantly impacting supply chains worldwide Further surges in demand ahead of Christmas will add to strain on supply

Predictions Remainder of Muharram period will see increased risk of small protests and isolated attacks against security forces Major disruptive protests or violence in Manama remains unlikely due to capabilities

Predictions Further Islamic State attacks in Kabul likely in coming weeks as group capitalises on reduced security in effort to attract Taliban defections IS will prioritise targets that will appeal