Insightful summer survey results recently conducted by Jim Reid and the team at Deutsche (400 FM responses).
Shown in the first chart below, expectations over an impending US recession have been pushed back sharply during the quarter, with those now projecting a 2024 ‘arrival’ more than doubling from March’s survey to 48%. This certainly chimes with the move up in selective risk assets in 1H.
In terms of magnitude, as the second chart illustrates, the weighted average (Deutsche methodology) is for a peak-to-trough GDP loss of approximately -1.8%, adjusted upwards to -1.6% to account for the 11% not expecting a recession.
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