This year’s rally in risk assets is breaking the resolve of Wall Street strategists, who have remained steadfastly bearish on the prospects for S&P gains in 2024 until now. So far in June, strategists have lifted their median price target for the bellwether S&P 500 Index by 250 basis points, placing it in the top 2% of monthly target raises historically.
Coming into 2024, the contrast could not have been greater, with strategists expecting flat S&P returns. The catch-up trade is firmly in play, as a relentless stock market rally has pressured Wall Street sell-side houses to get out in front of the market.
Looking back at recent history, outsized strategist target increases have been a flashing red signal for modern bull markets. If current market strength, fuelled by tech fever, continues as we head into election season, we might expect to see a high positive spread emerge in response. For now, we watch and wait.
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