Global equity markets have taken a significant hit this week, as investors started to take news of COVID-19 spreading beyond China to the rest of the world more seriously. We thought it would be a good time to consider the historical impact of previous pandemics on global investment markets, as well as assessing some of the likely outcomes we can expect this time round.
The chart below (from Alpine Macro and Charles Schwab) shows when those episodes occurred in relation to global equity market returns. The data suggests that past epidemics have not resulted in any significant or long-lasting damage to global stock prices. While certain economies and markets have been negatively impacted for short periods, most of these potential worldwide pandemic threats have proven to be just that – potential.
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