Copper prices are poised for sustained growth as geopolitical moves and supply constraints set the stage for a tightening market. With US President Donald Trump threatening substantial tariffs and global supply expected to contract, analysts predict strong performance for the base metal in the coming years.
Market optimism surged following Trump’s recent speech to Congress, where he suggested imposing a 25% tariff on US imports. This development, alongside an investigation by the US Commerce Department into the copper market, has reinforced expectations of continued price strength. The news sent copper prices soaring overnight, underscoring the metal’s growing appeal amid policy shifts and supply concerns.
A major driver behind this bullish outlook is the looming global deficit. JP Morgan has forecast copper prices reaching US$11,000 per metric ton next year as refined copper shortages deepen. The investment bank projects a growing supply gap, estimating a 160,000 metric ton shortfall by 2026. Moreover, expectations that the US government will enact at least a 10% tariff on refined copper and copper product imports—potentially rising to 25%—could further reshape market dynamics. Should US stockpiling accelerate before the tariffs take effect, global supply constraints may intensify, driving prices towards US$10,400 per metric ton in the second half of 2025.
While bullish sentiment prevails, some analysts remain more cautious. S&P Global acknowledges the structural deficit in copper concentrate but points to potential headwinds. Its forecast for the 2025 LME three-month copper price stands at US$9,716 per metric ton, reflecting a year-on-year rise of 4.8%. Factors such as US dollar strength and uncertainty over new policy implementations may moderate further price gains. China’s demand growth, a crucial element in the global copper market, is also expected to slow from 4% last year to 2.5% this year, presenting a downside risk.
The long-term outlook remains promising, underpinned by robust mining project activity. S&P Global has identified 139 copper mining projects slated to commence within the next two decades. Brownfield developments will take precedence, making up two-thirds of the committed capacity. Latin America is set to play a central role, contributing an estimated 42.9% of global copper output from 2025 to 2035.
Copper’s market fundamentals remain strong, with supply constraints and policy shifts likely to sustain price momentum. As the global deficit widens and investment in mining projects continues, the metal’s value proposition for investors grows ever stronger.
ARC Minerals Ltd (LON:ARCM) is a dynamic exploration and prospect generation company, forging partnerships with major mining companies, in its quest to discover and develop Tier 1 copper deposits.
