Once again, politics took our breath away during this first week of October. Donald Trump appeared to live-stream ever more evidence for his own impeachment, while the UK’s Boris Johnson ricocheted in his Brexit language between “last and final offer”, “a genuine attempt to bridge the chasm” and “broad landing zone in which I believe a deal can begin to take shape”.
However, this was only at the periphery of what drove stock markets around the world into another sudden sharp correction after what had been an undeniably pleasing September for risk assets (see the monthly risk asset returns table further down). What triggered the sell-off was an array of disappointing business sentiment readings. These led to a sudden realisation that neither the US economy nor the global services sector are any longer immune to the ongoing economic slowdown in manufacturing. A slowdown that started with China’s clamp down on its shadow banking sector, spread via slowing global car demand (on environmental concerns) and has recently been further exacerbated by falling business demand caused by uncertainty from Trump’s trade wars and Europe’s Brexit malaise.
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