The quick and the not-so-quick

It’s official: May is out and Boris is in. But despite the political changes this could bring, currency markets hardly reacted. £-sterling started the month at €1=£0.897, and remains at that level at the time of writing. It has weakened marginally since last weekend. Negotiators on both sides of the channel have signalled intransigence ahead of any new talks. Talk of an election before the Halloween deadline is growing. After Mr Johnson’s question-time pummelling of Mr Corbyn (Quentin Letts in The Times), markets may not fear the prospect of a left-wing government so much. The opinion polls will be interesting over the next few weeks. Still, Mr Johnson will not forget Mrs May’s electoral blunder and certainly won’t be eager to hold the record for shortest tenure.

For investors, the risks remain large, and the outcomes binary and balanced. Our rough calculus is that “no deal” has about a 33% chance – causing sterling to fall 10-20% – while “deal” is more likely at about 66%, sending sterling up about 5-10%. While we think about Brexit outcomes often, we don’t have any more information than others, so we don’t think this is a good area to carry active risk for our clients.

Click to view all articles for the EPIC: ,
Or click to view the full company profile:
    Share on facebook
    Share on twitter
    Share on linkedin
    Tatton Asset Management Plc

    More articles like this

    boohoo Plc

    Boohoo Group acquires a new office in Soho

    Boohoo Group plc (LON:BOO), a leading online fashion retailer, has announced that it has acquired, for £72 million, a new office in Soho, the heart of London’s West End, for the Group’s London-based brands. Since acquiring the Karen

    JTC Plc

    JTC revenue up 15.9% to £115.1m

    JTC PLC (LON:JTC), together with its subsidiaries, has announced its full year results for the year ended 31 December 2020.   As reported2020 As reported2019 As reportedChange Underlying*2020 Underlying*2019 Underlying*Change Revenue (£m) 115.1 99.3 +15.9% 115.1 99.3 +15.9%

    Lookers Plc

    Lookers Q1 trading performance better than expected

    Lookers plc (LON:LOOK), one of the leading UK motor retail and aftersales service groups, has provided the following trading update for the three-month period ended 31 March 2021. Summary In line with Covid-19 restrictions, the Group’s dealerships remained

    JTC Plc

    JTC completes acquisition of RBC cees Limited

    JTC plc (LON:JTC), the global provider of fund, corporate and private client services, has confirmed the completion of its acquisition of RBC cees Limited from RBC Holdings (Channel Islands) Limited, part of RBC Wealth Management. The acquisition was