Copper prices gained momentum yesterday after reports surfaced that the incoming Trump administration plans a gradual approach to increasing trade tariffs. The strategy, aimed at raising import duties incrementally by 2–5% per month rather than imposing steep hikes in one move, alleviated pressure on the US dollar and offered a degree of reassurance to the markets. Analysts at ING, Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey, highlighted this development as a potential game-changer for commodities, with copper already up over 4% this year.
During his presidential campaign, Donald Trump called for aggressive tariffs of 10–20% on all imported goods, with even higher rates targeting China. The reported approach now appears calibrated to strengthen negotiating power while avoiding sharp inflationary spikes. While these plans remain preliminary and have not been formally presented to Trump, their implications for the metals market are significant. A slow and measured rollout could temper the immediate economic impact, yet the ongoing uncertainty around a protracted trade war remains a key risk.
For copper and other industrial metals, the timing and scale of tariff implementation will be pivotal. ING analysts suggest that heightened trade tensions could spur China to introduce more robust economic stimulus measures, offsetting some of the downward pressure on copper prices. The anticipation of such measures may explain why copper prices have remained resilient, with a 4% gain already logged this year.
Speculators have shown growing confidence in copper’s outlook, as evidenced by the latest LME COTR report. For the week ending 10 January, net long positions in copper increased by 4,203 lots to reach 62,767, marking the highest level since late November. Aluminum has also seen a rise in net bullish bets, climbing by 1,294 lots to 105,528. Conversely, zinc positions have trended downward, with net bullish bets decreasing for the fourth consecutive week.
As markets navigate the interplay of US trade policy and Chinese stimulus expectations, copper stands at the intersection of global economic strategy and industrial demand. Its performance will be closely watched by investors seeking to capitalise on the shifting dynamics of trade and commodity markets.
Jubilee Metals Group plc (LON:JLP) is a diversified metal recovery business with a world-class portfolio of projects in South Africa and Zambia. The Company’s expanding multi-project portfolio across South Africa and Zambia provides exposure to a broad commodity basket including Platinum Group Metals, chrome, lead, zinc, vanadium, copper and cobalt.
