Citigroup predicts copper prices will reach $10,000 per tonne in the next three months as supply constraints and uncertainty over U.S. import tariffs create a tightening global market. With commodity giants scrambling to move copper ahead of potential trade barriers and demand remaining strong, the outlook has shifted dramatically.
Copper prices have climbed steadily since President Donald Trump signed an executive order triggering a Section 232 review of copper imports, assessing their impact on national security. The move has spurred traders like Glencore and Trafigura to rush shipments to the U.S. before any tariff decisions take effect, maximising profits while market conditions remain favourable.
The London Metal Exchange saw copper settle at $9,770 per tonne on Wednesday, while futures in New York have already breached the $10,000 mark. On Thursday morning, copper for May delivery edged up 0.6% to trade at $4.87 per pound ($10,071 per tonne) on the Comex market.
Citigroup analysts, led by Max Layton, believe the tightness in supply outside the U.S. will persist through May and June, temporarily counteracting broader price pressures stemming from U.S. trade policies. This represents a notable shift from Citi’s February outlook, when the bank projected copper prices to dip to $8,500 per tonne in Q2. However, Citi still anticipates a pullback once the demand surge from pre-tariff imports subsides.
Adding to the supply squeeze, Chile— the world’s largest copper producer— recorded a 24% month-over-month decline in output this January, hitting a nine-month low. At the same time, smelter demand continues to rise, intensifying pressure on already constrained supply chains.
Morgan Stanley also sees further upside for copper as market conditions remain tight and potential tariffs incentivise exporters to push shipments to the U.S. before restrictions take effect. The bank notes that shifting market structures, particularly the transition from contango to backwardation, could further fuel investor inflows.
As global markets adjust to shifting trade policies and supply dynamics, copper remains firmly in focus, with prices expected to stay elevated in the near term.
Jubilee Metals Group plc (LON:JLP) is a diversified metal recovery business with a world-class portfolio of projects in South Africa and Zambia. The Company’s expanding multi-project portfolio across South Africa and Zambia provides exposure to a broad commodity basket including Platinum Group Metals, chrome, lead, zinc, vanadium, copper and cobalt.
