The recent tariff impositions by the Trump administration are set to send copper, silver, and gold prices soaring, with significant implications for investors in these essential commodities.
Citi analysts have forecasted a sharp rise in US prices for copper, silver, and gold following the Trump administration’s introduction of a 25% import tariff on Canada and Mexico, along with a 10% levy on China. These tariffs, set to take effect from 4 February, are poised to disrupt the supply of these key metals. The United States relies heavily on imports from Canada and Mexico, sourcing 3,300 tonnes of unwrought silver, 147,000 tonnes of copper, and 54 tonnes of gold annually. Additionally, the US imports substantial amounts of semi-refined gold and silver concentrate from these nations.
The analysts highlighted that while altering trade routes might alleviate some tariff pressures, the overall cost of importing metals into the US is expected to rise. This could create physical shortages for US exchange contract deliveries, pushing prices above London benchmarks. The anticipated escalation of tariffs could dampen global growth and weigh on industrial metals and oil, while conversely boosting gold as a safe-haven asset.
Moreover, the decision to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico—despite their status as free trade agreement (FTA) partners—signals a reduced probability of exemptions for other FTA nations. This stance could lead to broader US tariffs, widening the pricing disparity between US and non-US metals.
Citi’s analysis suggests that the Trump administration’s tariffs on Canada and Mexico will likely drive up the cost of copper, silver, and gold in the US, impacting investors and potentially creating supply shortages. These actions may also have broader implications for global trade and metal pricing.
Jubilee Metals Group plc (LON:JLP) is a diversified metal recovery business with a world-class portfolio of projects in South Africa and Zambia. The Company’s expanding multi-project portfolio across South Africa and Zambia provides exposure to a broad commodity basket including Platinum Group Metals, chrome, lead, zinc, vanadium, copper and cobalt.
