Predictions Prime minister’s reappointment will prolong tensions between government and parliament risking delays to 2021-22 budget bill New cabinet will be formed in coming days, though absence of pro-reform ministers

Predictions Economic growth will be uneven in coming year, with spending focused on inefficient, state-run sectors like manufacturing and real estate Underlying economic challenges including low consumption and falling productivity

Predictions Mozambique-Tanzania security pact will be unable to halt tempo of Islamist militant attacks in Cabo Delgado Militants will be unable to directly threaten LNG facilities, but will target poorly

Predictions Regulatory approvals and Sinopharm procurement deal will allow first phase of vaccine rollout to begin in coming weeks Major logistical obstacles and vaccine scepticism will mean wider public rollout,

Predictions End of GCC dispute will offer opportunity to improve ties with Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, but wider strategic regional rivalries will persist De-escalation of tensions between Ankara and Riyadh

Predictions End to Gulf blockade will see rise in cross-border trade and travel, but unresolved foreign policy tensions mean diplomatic ties will remain strained Qatari citizens will seek to return

Predictions COVID-19 vaccinations will begin in first quarter of 2021, but struggle to secure sufficient doses will ensure virus continues to spread over coming year Zelenskiy will resist calls to

Predictions Attack on Hazara minority highlights Islamic State’s efforts to stoke sectarian tensions but capabilities will remain confined to Baluchistan province Army will tighten security in Quetta following attack, particularly

Predictions US sanctions on Assad family and central bank will exacerbate ongoing economic crisis but pose no threat to regime’s stability Measures will fail to sever long-standing ties between Damascus