Copper prices in London climbed on Monday, driven by a weaker U.S. dollar and signs of stronger manufacturing activity in China, the world’s largest consumer of industrial metals. The rally comes amid growing concerns over a widening supply deficit and potential U.S. tariffs that could reshape the global copper market.
J.P. Morgan forecasts a significant increase in the global refined copper shortfall, predicting a deficit of 160,000 metric tons by 2026. The bank maintains its bullish outlook, projecting an average copper price of approximately $11,000 per ton over the next year. This outlook is further supported by geopolitical developments, particularly the U.S. government’s new focus on copper imports.
Following President Donald Trump’s decision to launch a national security investigation into copper imports, J.P. Morgan anticipates the introduction of at least a 10% tariff on refined copper and copper products by the end of the third quarter of 2025. However, the possibility of tariffs escalating to 25% remains a significant risk. As the U.S. stockpiles copper ahead of these measures, a supply squeeze in other markets could emerge, reinforcing the bank’s forecast of prices reaching $10,400 per ton in the latter half of 2025.
China’s copper demand growth is expected to moderate, slowing from 4% last year to 2.5% in 2024. Nevertheless, global demand is predicted to hold steady, with only a slight deceleration from 3.2% in 2024 to 2.9% in 2025, highlighting the persistent need for refined copper despite regional fluctuations.
Recent data from the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) underscores the tightening market, revealing a global refined copper deficit of 22,000 metric tons in December, following a much larger 124,000-metric-ton shortfall in November. This consistent supply imbalance continues to fuel a bullish sentiment across the industry.
Citigroup also weighed in last week, stating that it expects copper tariffs to reach as high as 25% by the fourth quarter of 2025. Such a policy shift could further disrupt supply chains and drive up costs, reinforcing the structural challenges facing the market.
Goldman Sachs remains optimistic about commodities, arguing that current macroeconomic conditions are more supportive than in the post-financial-crisis decade. The firm points to fiscal stimulus, supply chain restructuring, and rising inflation expectations as key factors underpinning a stronger commodity cycle. Goldman Sachs particularly favors investments in gold, copper, aluminum, and oil, citing their significant upside potential in the evolving economic landscape. With the global economy transitioning from deleveraging to proactive fiscal policies, the commodities sector could be poised for sustained growth, offering lucrative opportunities for investors.
Jubilee Metals Group plc (LON:JLP) is a diversified metal recovery business with a world-class portfolio of projects in South Africa and Zambia. The Company’s expanding multi-project portfolio across South Africa and Zambia provides exposure to a broad commodity basket including Platinum Group Metals, chrome, lead, zinc, vanadium, copper and cobalt.
