The Global Maritime Forum has unveiled the significant economic potential of decarbonising shipping. New analysis commissioned by the Forum and conducted by Arup projects that transitioning the maritime sector to e-fuels could create up to four million new green jobs by 2050, doubling the current number of seafarers globally. Job creation will occur across renewable energy generation, hydrogen production, and e-fuel production phases of the supply chain.
Currently, the shipping industry accounts for 3% of global CO2 emissions, comparable to Japan’s annual emissions. As the backbone of the global economy, responsible for 80% of global trade, the industry faces immense pressure to decarbonise rapidly. In 2023, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) agreed to end fossil fuel consumption “by or around” 2050. Achieving this target will necessitate large volumes of scalable zero-emission fuels, primarily e-fuels based on hydrogen. Projections indicate that shipping’s demand for e-fuels could exceed 500 million tonnes by 2040 and rise to 600 million tonnes by 2050. Meeting this demand could require an additional 2TW of renewable energy generation capacity and 1TW of hydrogen production capacity by 2050.
The analysis, titled Green Jobs and Maritime Decarbonisation, highlights a trillion-dollar market opportunity in renewable energy and fuel production linked to e-fuels. An illustrative scenario where e-fuels become the primary energy source for international shipping suggests up to £3.2 trillion of investment is needed to develop renewable infrastructure, hydrogen production, and e-ammonia fuel production facilities. This investment will dramatically impact green job creation across the supply chain and generate immense benefits for the wider economy, furthering climate action and supporting renewable energy projects and green hydrogen uptake across other sectors.
As trillions of capital investment are directed towards green fuels for the maritime sector, stimulating the creation of green jobs can help countries transition from fossil fuels and provide a direct, quantifiable contribution to their economies. Investments in the Global South, where climate conditions are ideal for e-fuel production, have shown to generate higher job creation relative to equivalent investments in the Global North, suggesting a higher potential for developing countries to leverage these investments towards broader green job creation.
As long as shipping decarbonisation aligns with the IMO’s ‘striving indicative checkpoints,’ new data outlines the growth of green jobs from the 2020s through the 2040s across renewable energy generation, hydrogen production, and e-fuel production. The 2030s are predicted to see the most significant creation of green jobs, supported by over £2.2 trillion of capital investment in renewable infrastructure and energy and fuel capacity development. This includes 1,500GW of renewable energy generation, 800GW of green hydrogen, and 530Mtpa of green ammonia.
Job numbers are expected to be smaller in the 2020s and reduce in the 2040s as capital investment declines. However, a large proportion of these jobs will be transferable to other sectors, supporting the development of broader renewable energy capacity and aiding decarbonisation efforts across various sectors.
Jesse Fahnestock, Director of Decarbonisation at Global Maritime Forum, emphasised the critical role maritime decarbonisation will play in creating green jobs within the energy sector. The research shows the potential for large numbers of highly-skilled green jobs, many of which will be transferable to other sectors, supporting broader decarbonisation beyond shipping. Jeremy Anderson, Director of Just Transition and Sustainable Transport at the International Transport Workers’ Federation (ITF), stressed that new green jobs must offer good working conditions, labour rights, and a strong voice for workers to address economic inequalities between the Global North and Global South.
Connor Bingham, Project Manager at Global Maritime Forum and report author, highlighted the global impact of these investments, offering opportunities to workers affected by the transition from carbon-intensive industries. Further exploration of the geographic implications, particularly in the Global South, is crucial to unlocking the enormous potential for economic growth across nations.
The Global Maritime Forum calls for further research on the role of future fuels beyond e-fuels in creating quality green jobs and a stronger understanding of the geographical implications of maritime sector decarbonisation.
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