The maritime industry is making slow progress towards decarbonisation, driven by EU regulations and IMO targets. According to DNV’s latest Maritime Forecast to 2050 report, carbon-neutral fuels will remain costly and limited in supply for the foreseeable future. The report suggests that the industry should focus on more practical and attainable decarbonisation measures for the next decade.
Eirik Ovrum, a Maritime Principal Consultant at DNV and lead author of the report, emphasises the need for operational and technical solutions to enhance energy efficiency and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The report highlights the ongoing challenges in transitioning to carbon-neutral fuels and evaluates the technologies available for designing and retrofitting ships to meet future requirements.
The IMO has set ambitious goals for the shipping industry, with a 20% reduction in emissions by 2030, 70% by 2040, and full decarbonisation by 2050, all compared to 2008 levels. The report evaluates the role carbon-neutral fuels can play in achieving these targets, factoring in the production and availability of such fuels. By 2030, the estimated production of carbon-neutral fuels could range from 44 to 63 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe), while maritime demand could fall between 7 to 48 Mtoe. This disparity poses a significant challenge, as even at the higher end of production, other industries such as aviation and road transport will compete for these fuels.
On-board carbon capture (OCC) is another area of interest, offering the potential to delay the need for carbon-neutral fuels by capturing carbon dioxide from conventional fuel use. DNV’s findings suggest that OCC could become a viable option, depending on carbon pricing and the development of infrastructure for carbon use or permanent storage. However, OCC is seen as a longer-term solution, with limited storage projects currently reaching final investment stages. In the long term, working with developers to secure both carbon-neutral fuel supplies and carbon dioxide storage capacity will be crucial to realising the full potential of these technologies.
The report also focuses on energy-efficiency measures, which are essential for reducing fuel consumption and emissions, particularly in the short term. DNV estimates that operational and technical improvements could cut fuel consumption by 4% to 16% by 2030. This will not only help meet IMO targets but also enhance the competitiveness of shipowners by reducing costs. Technologies such as waste heat recovery systems, air lubrication systems, and wind-assisted propulsion are gaining traction, with more orders being placed for newbuilds.
Shore power is also identified as a means to reduce emissions, as it allows ships to use local electricity sources, which could be from renewable energy. The well-to-wake emissions from on-board power production are higher than the average emissions from many countries’ power grids, making shore power a viable solution for cutting emissions when in port. The report also notes that the production of electrofuels needs to rely on low-emission electricity sources to be effective in reducing a vessel’s greenhouse gas emissions.
More than 900 ships are now equipped with battery systems for hybrid power or recharging in port, and DNV’s analysis reveals that ships operating on shorter voyages are better positioned to take advantage of battery-charging infrastructure. Ships with shorter travel durations may cover a significant portion of their energy needs through batteries, reducing reliance on conventional fuels.
Another area explored in the report is the potential for nuclear propulsion. Small modular reactors could be a future option for the global merchant fleet, potentially accelerating the development of nuclear power in shipping. However, technical, commercial, and political barriers remain significant.
Digitalisation is playing an increasingly important role in enhancing operational efficiency and reducing the carbon footprint of shipping. Advances in digital tools such as artificial intelligence, machine learning, and the Internet of Things (IoT) are improving efficiency in shipping operations. When combined with real-time data, these technologies enable more integrated maritime networks, helping to optimise energy use.
The report concludes that the shipping industry must adopt a progressive regulatory framework to ensure decarbonisation. Measures like the FuelEU Maritime’s pooling mechanism could help facilitate a shift towards fleet-wide fuel strategies and reduce the risks associated with investing in alternative-fuelled vessels.
The shipping sector is unlikely to meet decarbonisation targets without adopting actionable solutions today. While the availability of carbon-neutral fuels remains limited, immediate steps such as enhancing fuel efficiency and exploring near-term alternatives like LNG and biofuels will be essential in maintaining progress towards long-term sustainability.
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